Still relying on luck alone?

Do you ever wonder why some people seem luckier than others? If you do then you could be hitting the wrong note, according to a whole bunch of experts who have spent their entire careers studying luck. Their conclusion: people aren’t born lucky – they’re made – they create their own luck and it all boils down to 5 basic rules.

1. Be open to everything and everyone – talk to strangers whenever and wherever you can. It appears that the most successful people are the ones who form friendly contacts at every opportunity.
2. Believe you are lucky – expect good things to happen to you and they will; as sure as eggs are eggs – it’s all down to belief in yourself; so start thinking yourself as lucky!
3. Trust your hunches – you’re constantly being hit by a whole bunch of sensory data, most of which your brain deals with subconsciously while you get on with your life, yet every now and again you do something without knowing quite why you decided to do it based on nothing more than gut instinct – just trust your instinct – more often than not it’s right!
4. Shake things up – break your normal routine; do something different; try out new things; explore new places and sooner rather than later you’ll be in the right place at the right time!
5. Be prepared – it’s all very good being in the right place at the right time; the real trick is to recognise it and know what to do when luck does arrive. Lucky opportunities always turn up unexpectedly – that’s why they’re called lucky – so keep on your toes; keep looking for those opportunities and you’ll be ready to turn it to your advantage the moment your lucky break arrives!

Mind you it doesn’t hurt to give luck a helping hand every now and again and the best way to do this is by following Johnny Fullerton the UK’s most prolific racing tipster – the man the bookies love to hate – who also happens to be Chief Racing Analyst at Inside Gambler!

Happy 2012

After four wins from seven starts – top filly Hooray heads for the 1,000 Guineas

Hooray, daughter of Invincible Spirit and 2010’s top-rated juvenile filly looks set for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 1^st.

The Cheveley Park Stud filly, trained by Sir Mark Prescott, earned top marks after winning four of her seven starts in 2010, most notably after winning by four and a half lengths in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket last October.

Managing Director of Cheveley Park Stud, Chris Richardson, says “The intention is for Hooray to go straight to the 1,000 Guineas.” Although she has yet to race beyond six furlongs Sir Mark advises that he is pleased with Hooray’s progress following her winter break and she will be effective over a mile this summer.

One to watch!

Another Cheltenham Festival ante-post bet in the Ryanair Chase

Half the battle with ante-post betting is backing a horse which actually turns up in the given race on the day, with betting on the Cheltenham Festival further complicated by the multiple targets now on offer to top horses.

One of several new races introduced at the Cheltenham Festival when a fourth day was added in 2005 was the Ryanair Chase. It offers those runners, who are caught between the 2 miles of Queen Mother Champion Chaseand the 3miles 6f of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, a perfect alternative to win a Grade 1 contest. The Ryanair run over the intermediate trip of twenty-one furlongs on the day inbetween those long-established championship contests.

A performance rating somewhere in the low 160′s has been enough to win each of the six runnings of the Ryanair, which helps with narrowing down the likely contenders come March as there are only a handful who have realistic pretensions to run to such a level. It must also be remembered that past winners Thisthatandtother, Fondmort, Taranis, Our Vic, Imperial Commander and Albertas Run were also all well established when they landed the prize.

So, it takes a particular type of horse to win the Ryanair.

And one that ticks all the boxes for me is Nicky Henderson’s Riverside Theatre. The Ryanair will be the only Cheltenham Festival entry for Riverside Theatre although that doesn’t make him a definite starter, as connections have mooted the possibility of missing the Festival altogether in favour of a target at Aintree the following month. That said, it could still pay to take a chance on the 7-year-old, as his price would plummet should he be announced a confirmed Ryanair runner, which would provide an opportunity of laying off that ante-post bet. What isn’t in doubt is that Riverside Theatre would hold a leading chance should he turn up at Cheltenham, his fine second to stable-companion Long Run in the King George representing form that sets him apart from most of his likely rivals in this race.

At 16/1 currently in the market, it’s well worth taking a chance on Riverside Theatre despite those doubts about him even turning up on the day! It’s good money…

Thursday 17th March 2011 – 2:40pm Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Riverside Theatre WIN @16/1

p.s. Add this to Grand Crus for the World Hurdle (see previous post!)

Dealing with uncertainty and probability: The biggest challenges to a successful horse racing gambler

Dealing with uncertainty is of the biggest challenges a horse racing bettor must master if he is to become successful.

In classical physics, it was believed that if you knew the initial state of a system with infinite precision, you could predict the behaviour of the system infinitely far into the future. According to quantum mechanics, however, there is a fundamental limit on the ability to make such predictions, because of the inability to collect the initial data with unlimited precision. To put this in gambling terms, the search for the perfect system or service is futile because you can never be 100% accurate with your statistics or knowledge. The only thing certain in life is that nothing is certain… we can only deal in probabilities.

The gambler who is comfortable with uncertainty has the capacity to stay relaxed in unclear situations and make or act on high probability decisions with a strong degree of conviction. However to the untrained gambler, uncertainty can be a real limiting factor in the search for profits. Whether it is professional gambling or stock market trading the crucial difference between the long term winners and long term losers is the winner’s ability to control their mental demons. Understanding uncertainty is a step in this direction. Who do you think the bookies fear most? The bookie shop mug who screams in his 5-1 winner then rushes to the counter to collect his racing winnings having already mentally spent it, or the quiet guy at the back who collects his winnings and leaves equally quietly?

Uncertainty works in both directions – will the next bet win? Will this winning run keep up? When will the losing run stop? The fact is, we can never know the answers to these questions with absolute certainty. However, paradoxically, it is this uncertainty that makes gambling so enticing. Psychologists have consistently found that the most enduring way to change behaviour is to give rewards at non-fixed intervals. Take a dog for example, you might teach him to sit by associating a biscuit with him performing the action. The most effective way to reward behaviour is to give it at non-fixed intervals such as every 5th time the dog sits on average. This might mean you give him a biscuit 5 times on the trot then just 1 out of 5. This keeps the dog guessing, he doesn’t know for sure when the next reward will come.

You can probably immediately spot the parallels here. Gambling is the ultimate non fixed interval reward. We don’t have a winner for five bets then all of a sudden two come at once, what a rush, what a reward. One more gamble, that next bet could be the big one! On the other hand we experience pain as a losing run sets in. Ok, we can’t control exactly when we’ll win, but we can control our ability to cope with and make decisions during uncertainty.

Understanding probability is key to dealing with uncertainty. An ‘odds on’ horse coming into win is often seen as a ‘given’ if a profit is made for example we’ve heard comments such as “It won, but it was odds on”. Let’s put this into perspective…

The implied probability of a horse trading at evens (1/1 SP) is 50%. Let’s get that into perspective, if you were ill and offered an operation that had a 50% of doing more harm than good would you take it? The longest losing run you can expect at those odds is seven. Remember if it can happen, it will. If you feel cursed with a ban run remember this, it isn’t you, its probability acting itself out. For those of you not familiar with these percentages 50% means fifty times out of a hundred this event is expected to happen, 2% means two times out of a hundred this will happen.

Here are a few more implied probabilities and max losing runs:

• 1/5 (0.2) = 83%. Max losing run of 3

• 10/11 (0.91) = 52%. Max losing run of 6

• 5/2 (2.5) = 29%. Max losing run of 13

• 5/1 (5) = 17%. Max losing run of 25

• 10/1 (10) = 9%. Max losing run of 49

• 25/1 (25) = 4%. Max losing run of 113

• 50/1 (50) = 2%. Max losing run of 233

• 100/1 (100) = 1%. Max losing run of 458

As you can see, even at odds of 1/5 (0.2) there is still a 17% chance of you losing. You’d think twice about birth control that offered those probabilities!

So, we’ve seen that there is obviously is a tremendous amount of uncertainty with every bet you take. Your job is to spot or act on tips where there are value opportunities – where your estimation of the true probability is lower than the implied probability over a good number of bets. Your job is not to have a bet on a game for a ‘little interest’ and your job is not to blow your winnings from the 25-1 horse straight away.

As a gambler, how many times have you asked yourself ‘Is this the right bet’? If you are like most other gamblers, the answer would be ‘nearly all the time’. How about we break this down and think about it from a different angle.

Let’s consider the possibility that it is NOT your job to make ‘the right bet’ every time, but rather to make an intelligent (knowledge based) ‘guestimate’ of what ‘the right bets’ could be – whilst continuing to monitor your selections to better increase the accuracy of your ‘guestimates’ over time. Viewing it this way might take the pressure off. In fact, it may even get you more comfortable with making decisions during uncertainty

Free Tip Friday: An upset in the Victor Chandler? Maybe!

In tomorrow’s Victor Chandler Chase (2.25pm Ascot), Master Minded is currently sitting pretty on 8/13 at the top of the market. On official ratings, the Paul Nicholls trained 8-year-old is an incredible 20lbs ahead of his rivals in tomorrow’s renewal and it’s hard to see where his biggest challenge will come from.. there is no doubting that the dual Champion Chase winner has looked back to his imperious best with dominating displays in both his appearances this season and is likely to take all the beating if replicating that kind of form tomorrow.

Five of the horses that took him on in his most recent outing, the Tingle Creek Chase at Cheltenham, reoppose this weekend – Petit Robin (second), Somersby (third), I’m So Lucky (fourth), Gauvain (fifth) and Kalahari King (seventh). Master Minded’s stablemate Tchico Polos, Nicky Henderson’s Mad Max and ‘comeback kid’ Crack Away Jack make up the the nine who will go to post for this 2m1f Grade 1 contest.

With Tony McCoy on the favourite, Master Minded looks to have everything in his favour and it would take a brave man to oppose him. However, whether you want to call me brave or stupid, I’m not tempted by the skinny odds on offer I’m looking for value amongst those looking to wrestle the crown from the would be king!

For me, the one that ticks the boxes is Gauvain. He wasn’t at his best when well behind Master Minded in the Tingle Creek on 11th December but had shown plenty of form prior to that with three progressive wins. He’s had time to fully adapt to a new training regime now and, with the Nick William’s yard starting to fire, could well be the one to worry Master Minded the most next weekend. I’m certainly taking him to reverse the form of the Tingle Creek and see off Petit Robin and Somersby (currently ahead of him in the Victor Chandler Chase market).

So, this week’s ‘Free Tip Friday’ is to go Each Way on Gauvain at 16/1 in the big race tomorrow. That’s where the Fullerton pennies are invested… it’s good money!

Saturday 22nd January 2011: 2.25pm Ascot #2 Gauvain Each Way @16/1

Kauto to rise like Lazarus at Cheltenham? Don’t bet against it!

A superb and thought provoking article from Jamie Lynch. Enjoy!

“The phenomenon is known as autoresuscitation, or sometimes Lazarus Syndrome. The murky waters of folklore and religion aside, there have been just thirty-eight recorded cases in the world; that of someone being pronounced dead, only to miraculously recover a pulse minutes or even hours later, literally knocking on the morgue door in the reported case of Judith Johnson of Delaware.

Though stopping short of declaring Kauto Star a perpetual non-runner, the general reaction to his King George defeat has felt almost like an obituary, not only taking it for granted that he’s a spent force but also, in some quarters, imploring his immediate retirement. It’s definitely a sporting thing, it’s probably a British thing, and it may simply be a human thing, but we’re prone to knee-jerk judgements; to fixate on the nearest evidence at the expense of the bigger picture; to wear blinkers.

Let’s take, for one example of how isolated snapshots can influence perception, the Betfair Market for the Premiership. Manchester United, top of the table, are currently trading at 1.95, but have already in the course of the season hit a maximum of 8.0 and a minimum of 1.74. There has been at least as much fluctuation for Arsenal (high of 13.5 and low of 3.85) and Manchester City (32.0 and 5.9), while yo-yo Chelsea were laid at 12.5 and backed at 1.44. Yes, someone, somewhere, sometime thought that Chelsea was a good bet at 4/9.

No doubt, at that time, Chelsea looked a certain Championship winner, convincing people to act on impulse, forsaking the grand scheme, all the while encouraged by a wave of media overreaction to the events of that weekend. Equally, at this time, Kauto looks a certain Championship loser, convincing people to act on impulse, forsaking the grand scheme, all the while encouraged by a wave of media overreaction to the events of last weekend.

In horse racing especially, we should know better. Of course, racing needs to be analysed (which is exactly what we do at Inside Gambler) but racing doesn’t need to be dramatised, and therein lies the difference between sense and sensationalism. Remember Workforce in the Dante? The pre-race hype distorted the bare facts of his so-called disappointing performance that day, and the rest, as they say, is history. Then there’s Denman, whose lacklustre reappearance at Kempton in 2009 after well-documented heart problems resulted in identical doom-mongering, and yet a mere month later he ran one of the races of his life to finish second in the Gold Cup, behind Kauto Star no less, which brings us back to the subject matter: Kauto himself.

The best chaser of the last forty years and (arguably) surpassed over jumps only by Arkle and Flyingbolt, Kauto Star has set the sort of precedents by which anything other than perfection is viewed as failure, with no room for forgiveness. No, Kauto wasn’t his usual self on Saturday, apparent some way out as he neither travelled nor jumped with his trademark fluency, but the truth that most seem unwilling to recognise is that a clearly sub-standard Kauto Star was still in with a shout for a fifth King George turning for home, and that he would have finished second but for walloping two out, not to mention the fact he was later found to have bled; but then again, like I said, there’s no room for forgiveness where Kauto is concerned.

For so long heralded let alone accepted as the best for decades, the only question over him was whether it was pronounced ‘Cor’-to or ‘Kay’-to, but the new debate, one that will rage on over the next two months and be discussed by the most knowledgeable brains within the industry, is still fairly simple: did Kempton represent an off day for Kauto Star, or did Kempton represent his days being numbered?

The purpose of this piece is not to persuade you to lump on him for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham but simply to dissuade you from getting caught up in the mass tide of presumption that Kauto Star is suddenly past his sell-by date. It was little over a year ago that we were describing his fourth King George win as ‘a stunning, near-perfect performance,’ earning him a monster rating of 191, and it was only two months ago that he won his fourteenth Grade 1 at Down Royal, when the big engine was still firing on most if not all its cylinders on his first start back.

All being well, Kauto Star will make it to Cheltenham Festival on March 18th, and he’ll line up with a CV and recorded rating that none of his rivals can match, Denman and Imperial Commander included. Ruby will be back on, and in Paul Nicholls he has the best in the business to prepare and repair him, Kauto Star requiring minor tuning rather than a full service. Put it that way, and the 9/1 on offer about him for the Gold Cup is tempting, you have to admit.

Contrary to some reports, Kauto Star is still very much alive and kicking. And, come March, he has a big chance.”

I’m certainly going to have a flutter on Kauto at his current ante-post price for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It’s good money!